January Hiring Stalls
U.S. private-sector hiring was weak in January, with ADP reporting just 22,000 jobs added, well below expectations and December’s already soft pace. Nearly all gains came from education and health services, masking declines in several sectors, including professional and business services, manufacturing, and other services. ADP said hiring remains cautious in a low-hire, low-fire environment, with revised data showing 2025 job growth was weaker than previously reported. Wage growth held steady at 4.5%, offering little new signal for policymakers as they await delayed government jobs data coming this week.
Commercial Real Estate Regains Its Footing
U.S. commercial real estate deal volume fell again in December, but full-year 2025 activity rose 17% from 2024, signaling a slow but resilient recovery. Multifamily and office led gains, with investors favoring high-quality assets, while retail re-emerged as a durable, investment-grade sector driven by strong fundamentals. Smaller deals and alternative assets like medical offices and data centers outperformed, as private capital and tech companies stepped up buying amid a pricing reset. While the market remains well below pre-pandemic levels, cautious optimism is building for 2026, with expectations of gradual momentum rather than a return to ultralow-rate conditions.
U.S.-India Trade Deal Signals Strategic Push
President Trump announced a new U.S.-India trade deal shortly after Europe finalized its own agreement with India, signaling Washington’s intent to stay competitive on global trade. The pact includes cutting U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 18% and removing additional punitive duties, while India is expected to increase purchases of U.S. products and ease trade barriers. Analysts view the deal as strategically important, reinforcing India’s role in Western supply chains and countering perceptions that the U.S. was being sidelined by other trade barriers. Critical details remain scarce, and some economists caution that the agreement’s real economic impact for U.S. consumers may be limited until the fine print is released.
As always, Base Wealth Management remains focused on aligning investment strategies with your long-term goals amid evolving market conditions.
