Labor Markets Hold Steady Despite Data Blackout
With the Bureau of Labor Statistics sidelined by the government shutdown, alternative data sources pointed to a steady but subdued labor market in September. Estimates suggest nonfarm payrolls grew modestly, with unemployment holding at 4.3%, still historically low but near a three-year high. Private and high-frequency data show hiring remains sluggish and uneven, with health care driving most job gains while other sectors lag. Consumer spending and small business activity held firm, indicating the economy remains resilient despite a cooling labor backdrop.
BLS to Resume Work on Key Inflation Report Amid Shutdown
The Labor Department will recall staff to complete September’s Consumer Price Index report despite the ongoing government shutdown. The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed the CPI will now be released on October 24, nine days later than originally planned. The move ensures the Social Security Administration can access inflation data needed to calculate annual cost-of-living adjustments before November 1. Other major reports, including nonfarm payrolls, remain delayed as Congress continues to struggle over funding measures.
Trump Threatens Major Tariffs on China Over Rare Earths Dispute
President Donald Trump warned he may impose a “massive increase in tariffs” on Chinese imports in response to China’s new export controls on rare earth minerals. The move comes after Beijing announced that, starting December 1, companies must obtain licenses to export products containing or made with Chinese rare earth materials, materials vital for defense and high-tech industries. Trump also threatened to cancel his upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping amid rising tensions. Markets fell following his comments, as investors weighed the potential for renewed U.S.-China trade friction.
