SPY
S&P 500
Last Week: 2.09%
YTD: 23.24%
1 Year: 23.50%
YTD: 23.24%
1 Year: 23.50%
DIA
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Last Week: 2.50%
YTD: 18.50%
1 Year: 13.82%
YTD: 18.50%
1 Year: 13.82%
ONEQ
NASDAQ
Last Week: 3.11%
YTD: 43.39%
1 Year: 41.44%
YTD: 43.39%
1 Year: 41.44%
Russell 2000
Last Week: 2.50%
YTD: 13.63%
1 Year: 14.55%
YTD: 13.63%
1 Year: 14.55%
Large Growth
YTD: 36.63%
1 Year: 26.17%
*As of 11/30/2023
1 Year: 26.17%
*As of 11/30/2023
Large Value
YTD: 5.03%
1 Year: 2.21%
*As of 11/30/2023
1 Year: 2.21%
*As of 11/30/2023
Inflation Slowing
The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a closely watched inflation measure, increased 0.1% in November. Inflation was up 3.1% from this time last year. This was in line with expectations of a modest monthly increase and a yearly increase of 3.1%. The inflation number is still above the Fed’s long-term 2% target, though showing progress. A 2.3% drop in energy prices helped keep inflation in check. Meanwhile, food prices were higher on an annual basis.
Retail Sales
Early holiday shoppers lifted retail sales in November. Retail sales rose 0.3% last month, stronger than the 0.2% decline in October. Analysts had estimated a decline of 0.1% for November. When factoring in the increase in CPI for November, consumers outpaced the increase in costs of goods. The Fed expects economic growth to slow next year, though they do not foresee a recession. Consumers have been very resilient coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic. We will see how the depletion of savings affects spending in 2024.
The Federal Reserve Meeting
The Fed dialed back its inflation projections. They are predicting inflation will decline to 2.4% in 2024. Weakening economic data gives hope that consumers will slow down in the coming year. These new forecasts suggest a milder inflation picture in the next few years. The Federal Open Market Committee forecasts a bump in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 2.6% annualized in 2023, a half a percent increase from their last update in September. Officials see GDP at 1.4% in 2024, unchanged from the previous numbers they gave. The Fed’s notes from the meeting also indicate they will look to lower rates in 2024. Some measures and estimates show three decreases by a quarter of a percentage point each.
Mortgage Rates Fall
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the United States fell below 7% for the first time since August. Mortgage interest rates peaked in October at nearly 8%. Rates have been falling in subsequent weeks as it is speculated the Federal Reserve will be lowering interest rates in 2024. Rates in the bond market and loan rates decline ahead of the Fed actually cutting rates as they price in this information.
