Market Watch: Inflation Eases, Retail Sales Up, Fed Adjusts Outlook

Federal reserve meeting

Market Watch: Inflation Eases, Retail Sales Up, Fed Adjusts Outlook

SPY
S&P 500
Last Week: 2.09%
YTD: 23.24%
1 Year: 23.50%
DIA

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Last Week: 2.50%
YTD: 18.50%
1 Year: 13.82%
ONEQ
NASDAQ
Last Week: 3.11%
YTD: 43.39%
1 Year: 41.44% 
Russell 2000
Last Week: 2.50%
YTD: 13.63%
1 Year: 14.55% 
Large Growth
YTD: 36.63%
1 Year: 26.17% 
*As of 11/30/2023
Large Value
YTD: 5.03%
1 Year: 2.21%
*As of 11/30/2023

Inflation Slowing

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a closely watched inflation measure, increased 0.1% in November. Inflation was up 3.1% from this time last year. This was in line with expectations of a modest monthly increase and a yearly increase of 3.1%. The inflation number is still above the Fed’s long-term 2% target, though showing progress. A 2.3% drop in energy prices helped keep inflation in check. Meanwhile, food prices were higher on an annual basis.

Retail Sales

Early holiday shoppers lifted retail sales in November. Retail sales rose 0.3% last month, stronger than the 0.2% decline in October. Analysts had estimated a decline of 0.1% for November. When factoring in the increase in CPI for November, consumers outpaced the increase in costs of goods. The Fed expects economic growth to slow next year, though they do not foresee a recession. Consumers have been very resilient coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic. We will see how the depletion of savings affects spending in 2024.

The Federal Reserve Meeting

The Fed dialed back its inflation projections. They are predicting inflation will decline to 2.4% in 2024. Weakening economic data gives hope that consumers will slow down in the coming year. These new forecasts suggest a milder inflation picture in the next few years. The Federal Open Market Committee forecasts a bump in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 2.6% annualized in 2023, a half a percent increase from their last update in September. Officials see GDP at 1.4% in 2024, unchanged from the previous numbers they gave. The Fed’s notes from the meeting also indicate they will look to lower rates in 2024. Some measures and estimates show three decreases by a quarter of a percentage point each.

Mortgage Rates Fall

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the United States fell below 7% for the first time since August. Mortgage interest rates peaked in October at nearly 8%. Rates have been falling in subsequent weeks as it is speculated the Federal Reserve will be lowering interest rates in 2024. Rates in the bond market and loan rates decline ahead of the Fed actually cutting rates as they price in this information.
  • Alex Wolfe

    Alex is a Certified Financial Planner™. He brings nearly a decade of experience working with individuals, families, and business owners. Prior to working for Base Wealth Management, Alex worked for Fidelity Investments and an independent wealth management firm in Venice, FL. Through many years of practice, he specializes in helping clients navigate their financial goals through comprehensive financial planning. He received his bachelor’s degree in economics from Texas A&M University.

Ready for your Journey?
Fill out the form below!

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR YOUTUBE CHANNEL!

Click here to go to our YouTube channel and subscribe for weekly financial updates and more! We’d love your help to in getting to 500 subscribers!

Register for our Open House event!

2022 Tax Document Information

As a Base Wealth Management client, you should receive your paper tax documents via mail in the coming weeks. Or, if you previously had an online account with Pershing’s NetX360, you should be able to access your 2022 tax documents through that portal. 

If not, or if you experience any issues, please reach out to Tim O’Brien (tim.obrien@intervestintl.com).

Get a FREE Solo 401(K) Guide

Simply submit your name and email to receive a PDF straight to your inbox.

"*" indicates required fields

Name*
This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.
 *We protect your data and HATE spam.
 

Get a FREE Roth 457 Guide!

Simply submit your name and email to receive a PDF straight to your inbox.

"*" indicates required fields

Name*
This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.
 *We protect your data and HATE spam.
 

Get a FREE Roth 401(K) Guide

Simply submit your name and email to receive a PDF straight to your inbox.

"*" indicates required fields

Name*
This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.
 *We protect your data and HATE spam.
 

Get a FREE Solo 401(K) 2-Pager for FireFighters

Simply submit your name and email to receive a PDF straight to your inbox.

"*" indicates required fields

Name*
This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.
 *We protect your data and HATE spam.
 

Get a FREE copy of Divorce the IRS

If you would like to request a physical copy of Divorce the IRS, please fill out the form below.

"*" indicates required fields

Name*
Address*
This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.
 *This book is most suitable for households with $250K or more in investable assets.
 

OOPS!

You’ve stumbled across an element that isn’t quite ready for the web yet. We’re working on a lot of new features so stay tuned.

-The Base Wealth Team

Choose your advisor

Dan DiLascia

Sean Koscho

Kyle
Howell

Josh
Pisa